{"version":"https://jsonfeed.org/version/1.1","title":"sma200.trade","home_page_url":"https://sma200.trade","feed_url":"https://sma200.trade/feed.json","description":"SMA200 trend-filter signals, plain-English deep-dives, and open backtest research.","language":"en-us","icon":"https://sma200.trade/favicon.png","favicon":"https://sma200.trade/favicon-32x32.png","authors":[{"name":"Christian"}],"items":[{"id":"https://sma200.trade/learn/leveraged-etf-borrow-cost","url":"https://sma200.trade/learn/leveraged-etf-borrow-cost","title":"The Hidden Cost Every Leveraged-ETF Backtest Ignores","content_text":"Most synthetic LETF backtests overstate returns by ~60% over 10 years. The bug is one missing term in the daily-return formula. This piece shows the calibration proof against real TQQQ, the corrected long-window numbers, and what the SMA200 trend filter actually does once leveraged ETFs are modeled honestly.","summary":"Most synthetic LETF backtests overstate returns by ~60% over 10 years. The bug is one missing term in the daily-return formula. This piece shows the calibration proof against real TQQQ, the corrected long-window numbers, and what the SMA200 trend filter actually does once leveraged ETFs are modeled honestly.","date_published":"2026-05-19T12:00:00Z","date_modified":"2026-05-19T12:00:00Z","authors":[{"name":"Christian"}],"tags":["article","learn"]},{"id":"https://sma200.trade/learn/why-one-indicator-isnt-enough","url":"https://sma200.trade/learn/why-one-indicator-isnt-enough","title":"Why One Indicator Isn't Enough (and Why Three Tuned Indicators Aren't Better)","content_text":"The SMA200 gives you a binary read on long-term trend. Useful, but incomplete. Most traders try to fix this by stacking RSI, MACD, and Bollinger bands until the chart is unreadable. There's a better way, and a walk-forward test reveals why most \"tuned\" confluence strategies are statistical noise dressed up as edge.","summary":"The SMA200 gives you a binary read on long-term trend. Useful, but incomplete. Most traders try to fix this by stacking RSI, MACD, and Bollinger bands until the chart is unreadable. There's a better way, and a walk-forward test reveals why most \"tuned\" confluence strategies are statistical noise dressed up as edge.","date_published":"2026-05-19T12:00:00Z","date_modified":"2026-05-19T12:00:00Z","authors":[{"name":"Christian"}],"tags":["article","learn"]},{"id":"https://sma200.trade/research/borrow-cost-correction-synthetic-letf","url":"https://sma200.trade/research/borrow-cost-correction-synthetic-letf","title":"[Current] Borrow-Cost Correction: Synthetic LETF Methodology + Revised Numbers","content_text":"The simple L*daily − ER/252 synthetic LETF formula overstates real TQQQ by 62%. Adding the (L-1)*borrow_rate/252 term tracks real TQQQ within 5%. Walk through the bug, the fix, and revised numbers for synthetic TQQQ 1999-2026 + defensive bucket comparison.","summary":"The simple L*daily − ER/252 synthetic LETF formula overstates real TQQQ by 62%. Adding the (L-1)*borrow_rate/252 term tracks real TQQQ within 5%. Walk through the bug, the fix, and revised numbers for synthetic TQQQ 1999-2026 + defensive bucket comparison.","date_published":"2026-05-19T12:00:00Z","date_modified":"2026-05-19T12:00:00Z","tags":["research","methodology","synthetic-letf","tqqq","upro","testfolio","calibration"]},{"id":"https://sma200.trade/research/full-leverage-spectrum","url":"https://sma200.trade/research/full-leverage-spectrum","title":"[Updated] Full Leverage Spectrum: 1x/2x/3x × B&H/SMA200 across 5 Underlyings","content_text":"Tests every cell of the leverage × filter matrix across SPY, QQQ, ^SOX, gold, and silver over 25.7 years. Finds a vol break-point at ~25-30%: below it, more leverage helps; above it, vol decay destroys returns even with the filter on.","summary":"Tests every cell of the leverage × filter matrix across SPY, QQQ, ^SOX, gold, and silver over 25.7 years. Finds a vol break-point at ~25-30%: below it, more leverage helps; above it, vol decay destroys returns even with the filter on.","date_published":"2026-05-17T12:00:00Z","date_modified":"2026-05-17T12:00:00Z","tags":["research","leveraged-etfs","leverage","vol-decay","spy","qqq","sox","gold","silver"]},{"id":"https://sma200.trade/research/rebalance-frequency-study","url":"https://sma200.trade/research/rebalance-frequency-study","title":"[Current] Rebalance Frequency Study on a 9-Asset Leveraged Portfolio","content_text":"Tests daily / weekly / monthly / quarterly / yearly / 30%-band rebalancing on a tested 9-asset leveraged portfolio. Finds that rebalance frequency matters far less than people assume; daily and yearly tie for best Sharpe, middle frequencies are slightly worse.","summary":"Tests daily / weekly / monthly / quarterly / yearly / 30%-band rebalancing on a tested 9-asset leveraged portfolio. Finds that rebalance frequency matters far less than people assume; daily and yearly tie for best Sharpe, middle frequencies are slightly worse.","date_published":"2026-05-17T12:00:00Z","date_modified":"2026-05-17T12:00:00Z","tags":["research","portfolio-construction","rebalancing","tax-efficiency","leveraged-portfolio"]},{"id":"https://sma200.trade/research/portfolio-archetypes-search","url":"https://sma200.trade/research/portfolio-archetypes-search","title":"[Updated] Portfolio Archetypes Search: Finding the Sweet Spot","content_text":"Tests 10 candidate portfolio compositions across both stress (2000-2026) and bull (2012-2026) windows, plus sensitivity sweeps for UPRO/UGL ratio and a BTC sleeve. Headline: heavy-gold beats heavy-equity in Sharpe, and SMA200 on the equity sleeve dominates every other configuration.","summary":"Tests 10 candidate portfolio compositions across both stress (2000-2026) and bull (2012-2026) windows, plus sensitivity sweeps for UPRO/UGL ratio and a BTC sleeve. Headline: heavy-gold beats heavy-equity in Sharpe, and SMA200 on the equity sleeve dominates every other configuration.","date_published":"2026-05-17T12:00:00Z","date_modified":"2026-05-17T12:00:00Z","tags":["research","portfolio-construction","upro","ugl","btc","sharpe-optimal","sma200","leverage"]},{"id":"https://sma200.trade/research/defensive-bucket-comparison","url":"https://sma200.trade/research/defensive-bucket-comparison","title":"[Updated] Defensive Bucket Comparison: Cash vs Gold vs TLT vs Combinations","content_text":"Across 21 years, tested what to hold during SMA200-filter OFF periods on a leveraged-equity strategy. Gold > combinations > cash > long Treasuries. The TLT/ZROZ result is the most surprising and durable: long bonds finish worst on both Sharpe and max drawdown.","summary":"Across 21 years, tested what to hold during SMA200-filter OFF periods on a leveraged-equity strategy. Gold > combinations > cash > long Treasuries. The TLT/ZROZ result is the most surprising and durable: long bonds finish worst on both Sharpe and max drawdown.","date_published":"2026-05-17T12:00:00Z","date_modified":"2026-05-17T12:00:00Z","tags":["research","defensive-bucket","gold","tlt","zroz","sma200","sharpe"]},{"id":"https://sma200.trade/research/lrs-family-replication-and-walkforward","url":"https://sma200.trade/research/lrs-family-replication-and-walkforward","title":"[Current] LRS Family: Replication + Walk-Forward Parameter Sweep","content_text":"Replicates the Testfolio LRS-style trend strategies on TQQQ, SOXL, UPRO with walk-forward parameter sweeps. The brutal finding: train-test Sharpe correlation is near zero, meaning 'optimal' parameters don't predict next-decade performance.","summary":"Replicates the Testfolio LRS-style trend strategies on TQQQ, SOXL, UPRO with walk-forward parameter sweeps. The brutal finding: train-test Sharpe correlation is near zero, meaning 'optimal' parameters don't predict next-decade performance.","date_published":"2026-05-17T12:00:00Z","date_modified":"2026-05-17T12:00:00Z","tags":["research","methodology","walk-forward","parameter-tuning","overfitting","lrs","rsi","sma"]},{"id":"https://sma200.trade/research/leverage-vs-volatility-per-underlying","url":"https://sma200.trade/research/leverage-vs-volatility-per-underlying","title":"[Updated] Leverage vs Volatility per Underlying: 1x vs 3x, B&H vs SMA200","content_text":"Per-underlying analysis of SPY, QQQ, and ^SOX showing how leverage-vs-vol-decay interacts with the SMA200 filter. Establishes the vol-break-point hypothesis that the full leverage spectrum study later confirmed.","summary":"Per-underlying analysis of SPY, QQQ, and ^SOX showing how leverage-vs-vol-decay interacts with the SMA200 filter. Establishes the vol-break-point hypothesis that the full leverage spectrum study later confirmed.","date_published":"2026-05-17T12:00:00Z","date_modified":"2026-05-17T12:00:00Z","tags":["research","leveraged-etfs","leverage","vol-decay","sma200","spy","qqq","sox"]},{"id":"https://sma200.trade/research/sma200-extended-windows-synthetic","url":"https://sma200.trade/research/sma200-extended-windows-synthetic","title":"[Updated] SMA200 on Extended/Synthetic Long Windows","content_text":"Three long-window tests: synthetic TQQQ since 1999, unleveraged S&P 500 since 1940, synthetic 3x S&P since 1940. The unleveraged S&P decade table is the load-bearing finding; the synthetic LETF portions are superseded by the May 19 borrow-cost correction.","summary":"Three long-window tests: synthetic TQQQ since 1999, unleveraged S&P 500 since 1940, synthetic 3x S&P since 1940. The unleveraged S&P decade table is the load-bearing finding; the synthetic LETF portions are superseded by the May 19 borrow-cost correction.","date_published":"2026-05-14T12:00:00Z","date_modified":"2026-05-14T12:00:00Z","tags":["research","leveraged-etfs","synthetic-letf","sma200","s&p-500","long-history","regime"]},{"id":"https://sma200.trade/learn/sma200-vs-buy-and-hold","url":"https://sma200.trade/learn/sma200-vs-buy-and-hold","title":"Does the 200-day Moving Average Actually Beat Buy-and-Hold?","content_text":"A look at 16 years of data on QQQ, TQQQ, SOXL, UPRO comparing the simplest trend-filter rule against passive buy-and-hold. The answer is more interesting than either side wants to admit.","summary":"A look at 16 years of data on QQQ, TQQQ, SOXL, UPRO comparing the simplest trend-filter rule against passive buy-and-hold. The answer is more interesting than either side wants to admit.","date_published":"2026-05-13T12:00:00Z","date_modified":"2026-05-15T12:00:00Z","authors":[{"name":"Christian"}],"tags":["article","learn"]},{"id":"https://sma200.trade/research/letf-inception-sma200-vs-bh","url":"https://sma200.trade/research/letf-inception-sma200-vs-bh","title":"[Current] LETF Inception Backtest: Buy-and-Hold vs SMA200 Filter","content_text":"Per-fund backtest comparing buy-and-hold against the SMA200 trend filter on SOXL, TQQQ, and UPRO from each fund's launch through 2026. Results show the filter dramatically reduces max drawdown on every fund (-80%+ to -30-40%) with similar long-term Sharpe.","summary":"Per-fund backtest comparing buy-and-hold against the SMA200 trend filter on SOXL, TQQQ, and UPRO from each fund's launch through 2026. Results show the filter dramatically reduces max drawdown on every fund (-80%+ to -30-40%) with similar long-term Sharpe.","date_published":"2026-05-13T12:00:00Z","date_modified":"2026-05-13T12:00:00Z","tags":["research","leveraged-etfs","sma200","tqqq","soxl","upro","drawdown"]}]}